Tuesday, August 7, 2012

The Numbers Racket - Cows, Goats and Workers Income

The Numbers Racket This is a great analysis by Steve Landsburg (using numbers from the new book Unintended Consequences by Edward Conard) explaining a seeming paradox in workers median income gain over the period 1980-2005. In total, adjusted for inflation, workers income increased only 3%. However, each category - men, women, whites, non-whites - increased from 15%-62%.

How is this possible? As Steve points out, it happens as the demographics change over time with an influx of more low-income groups - women and non-whites - into the population. This creates the illusion of no progress while in fact everyone has progressed.

It's similar to trying to compare the cost of a basket of goods over time without considering that the mix of goods has changed at the same time that both nominal and relative prices have changed.